INVEST
INVEST
Double or Nothing - Misha's new fund, self-driving taxis, and a global flash crash
Double or Nothing - Misha's new fund, self-driving taxis, and a global flash crash
Timestamps 0:20 - Dr Alan Taylor introduces radiotherapies and the explosion of interest in targeted radiotherapies in cancer 1:43 - Lutetium and Copper as radioactive payload 2:00 - The early history of Clarity Pharmaceuticals, the development of the copper cage 4:40 - Novartis’s Pluvicto blockbuster 4:50 - Comments on Telix 5:11 - Advantages of Copper over Lutetium, Gallium and Fluorine 6:37 - How Clarity is dosing higher than Pluvicto without dose-limiting toxicities 7:25 - Intellectual property owned by Clarity, including composition-of-matter, in contrast to the limited IP of some competitors 9:30 - Point Biopharma acquisition by Lilly and why Alan expected the trial to fail 11:10 - Eli Lilly’s strategy in radiopharmaceuticals 12:58 - Sensitivity limitations of existing diagnostics from Telix and Lantheuswhich are superior to the prior standard-of-care (bone scan), but still miss many metastases. 14:55 - Clarity’s ability to detect lesions down to 2 mm, vs Lantheus at 5 mm, target sensitivity, and advantages of second day imaging which Clarity’s tech allows 18:15 -The pathway to commercialisation of diagnostics after Phase III 18:40 - Supply issues in radiopharma and Clarity’s position 19:30 - Patient centric medicine vs isotope centric 20:00 - Discussion of biochemical recurrence (BCR) 20:33 - Comments on the recent capital raise 21:50 - Big pharma interest, run down of the different players with existing franchises 22:37 - Typical progression of prostate cancer, treatment pathway, and more on the companies which own the key franchises 26:25 - Book recommendation: ‘Invasion of the prostate snatchers’ 29:30 - Clarity’s Complete Response 29:55 - SECURE trial - the most exciting part of Clarity 33:34 - Discussion of the second cohort data which had a similar dose of radiation to the existing treatmetn Pluvicto Pluvicto, where 3 out of 3 patients had drops in PSA of more than 80%. 34:45 - Discussion of the third cohort data with a higher dose and the sickest patients. Half of the patients had failed prior 6 lines of treatment or more, including Pluvicto and Actinium / alpha particle-based therapies. 36:30 - Discussion fo future multiple dose cohorts, dosing regimen of Pluvicto and relevance for Clarity’s trial design 38:00 - Moving radiopharmacuticals to front-line 40:00 - Treatment paradigm with Clarity 41:50 - Nuclear analogy with JNJ’s alpha particle trial. More on alpha particles 44:45 - Lead-based alpha emitters 45:00 - Alpha vs beta emitters 45:50 - Next targets after prostate cancer? 46:45 - Bombesin as a pan-cancer target, and sartate in neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) 48:00 - More on Lilly, Novartis, and major oncology providers 49:00 - How is Clarity looking at the big picture strategically? 51:32 - Discussion of Bristol Myers Squibb US$4.1 billion buyout of Rayze Bio, based on generic dotatate linker. 53:44 - Alan’s recent trip to the US and thoughts on conferences 58:00 - Antibody Drug Conjugate (ADC) analogy 1:00:57 - Back to SECURE trial, what are the next data readouts and the next steps. Future Phase 3 trial design, head-to-head with Pluvicto vs other standard-of-care 1:02:57 - Sartate program 1:07:50 - Bombesin target and breast cancer target, detected cancer in 4 out of 4 patients that was undetectable with PSMA-based diagnostics. 1:14:00 - Comments on supply in Europe, Asia, the US.
Clarity Pharmaceuticals with Dr Alan Taylor: the next generation of radiopharmaceuticals
It must be a uniquely modern horror to see a drone flying towards you with a grenade strapped, and it must be all the worse to know your last moments are being filmed.  Drones are now ubiquitous across the battlefields of Ukraine, Gaza, and shipping lanes in the Middle East.  Costing relative pittances, cheap drones loaded with explosives can destroy military hardware worth millions, or in the case of ships, billions of dollars. They can combine in swarms to overwhelm even the most advanced defence systems, and mask deadlier missiles and weaponry.  This new asymmetry has changed the battlefield, so it was timely to sit down with Oleg Vornik, CEO of Droneshield, to discuss how their technology can detect and disable these deadly low-cost swarms.  There are handheld versions sold to soldiers and spies, larger systems for tanks and ships, and larger systems still with a broader range of senses for airfields, bases, and civilian sites like prisons and airports. Drones can be shot down with guns, caught in a net by other drones, or destroyed by high-tech lasers and microwaves. Droneshield specializes in defending against cheap drones that are causing so much havoc by jamming their communications and forcing them down.  With the world seemingly in flames it’s not surprising that Droneshield’s growth has been explosive. Revenues jumped from $17m in 2023, to $55 million in 2024, and could reach over $90 million in 2025.  The opportunity is substantial, perhaps less than 1% penetrated globally, as most military units around the world are entirely undefended. Detection and monitoring is playing an increasing part of Droneshield's business, as their software can track and monitor drones across an entire battlefield.  The civilian opportunity is perhaps even greater.  Drone sightings closed Gatwick airport for three days in December 2018, and the perpetrators were never discovered. Prisons, powerplants, architectural sites like Sydney Opera House are exposed.  I personally know people who have seen drones flying over their homes, and are concerned these could be theives testing whether anyone is in, or God forbid, photographing children,  There's a good chance within a few years that anti-drone technology is as ubiquitous as drones themselves are today, and Droneshield is particularly well positioned given its ability to defend against commercially available models that can be bought in-store in all major cities and ordered online from Amazon and Alibaba to almost anywhere in the world.  Oleg shared some fascinating anecdotes around their use in the military, prisons, and when Droneshield's technology defended political leaders from attack. I'm sure you'll find this conversation as interesting as I did! Michael  Timestamps 0:03 – Oleg introduces DroneShield 1:02 – How it works 2:10 – Autonomous drones and AI on the modern battlefield – how Droneshield fits in 11:02 – Droneshield’s products 22:16 – Additional use cases for DroneShield products 23:37 – The different ways to destroy a drone 30:49 – Future of drone warfare and Droneshield’s product pipeline 37:55 – Partnering with US and Australian defence agencies 43:36 – The civilian opportunity, prisons, airfields, stadiums 49:00 – Manufacturing of DroneShield products 50:46 – Financial overview and the investment case
Droneshield: Defending against the modern horrors of war, with CEO Oleg Vornik
Crashes in Shopify, Roblox, Unity, Block, and ZoomInfo and how to avoid them
Dodging the bloodbath in midcap
Clarity Pharmaceuticals Success: Clarity Pharmaceuticals reported a significant response in a patient with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer. The patient received two cycles of copper 67 Biss. PSMA, and after six months from the second dose, there was no evidence of PSA, indicating a potential cure. This is noteworthy because the patient had undergone extensive prior treatments, including chemotherapy and androgen deprivation therapy. Trial Progress and Market Potential: Clarity Pharmaceuticals has been releasing data as each cohort progresses in their trial, currently in the fourth cohort of phase one. The market potential for effective prostate cancer treatment is significant, estimated at over $6 billion. The company's stock is trading at around $650 million, with considerable interest from both investors and pharmaceutical companies due to the promising trial results. Director Confidence and Financials: Directors have shown confidence in the company by purchasing stock with cash, signaling belief in the company's prospects. Clarity Pharmaceuticals has a substantial cash reserve of $150 million AUD, providing a strong financial position for future trials and developments. Curve Beam AI Progress: Curve Beam AI reported progress with six device sales and orders for five more devices in one month, indicating a potential annual run rate of 60. The company is working on expanding its device's approved usage beyond foot and ankle to include hip and knee, which could significantly increase its market potential. Financial Challenges and Future Prospects: Curve Beam AI faces financial constraints with approximately $11.8 million in cash, expecting to last until September 2023. The company's success relies on increasing its installed base to maximize revenue from software updates and future developments. Trans Medics' Strong Performance: Trans Medics reported a 133% increase in revenue compared to the previous year, with $12 million in net income for the quarter. The company's profitability amidst significant revenue growth highlights the effectiveness of its platform and pricing power. Market Trends and Risk Management: Market trends show a divergence between companies with strong performance like Trans Medics and those with weaker results like AMD. Applying quantitative risk management strategies can reduce drawdowns and optimize returns, as demonstrated by Trans Medics' performance. Comparison with AMD: AMD reported declines in gaming and embedded segment revenue, highlighting the importance of sticking with market leaders like Nvidia. Nvidia's consistent growth and profitability contrast with AMD's weaker financial performance, emphasizing the benefits of choosing market leaders.
Clarity stuns with new data, Curvebeam back on track, Transmedics blows out again: Frazpod #67
Recorded this a week ago on the 18th of April
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Alphawave, NVIDIA, TSMC, and Eli Lilly Recorded Thursday 18 April 2024
The first crack in semis? And Eli Lilly reports Mounjaro improves sleep apnea
The three revolutions of 2023 and what happens next in 2024. Taiwan Semiconductor, NVDA, AMD, ASML, TSM, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Clarity Pharmaceuticals
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Medtech, liquidity, and talking computers
Episode 62: Medtech, liquidity, and talking computers
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