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Disney and Recovery Plays

Hi everyone, We recorded our recent strategy update. As the virus recedes, it’s increasingly clear that the worst case scenarios feared…

Coronavirus: worse than you think, but not so bad for stocks

Coronavirus: worse than you think, but not so bad for stocks

The 2020 Coronavirus has become a cultural meme, like Kony 2012, or bitcoin in 2018. I’d guess most people on the planet have talked about it in the last 24 hours. The doctor line seems to be that it’s not that bad… more people die from influenza every year. There are...

Love, Quality and How We’re Different

Love, Quality and How We’re Different

January 2020 Investment Update Dear investors and well-wishers, First of all I’d like to sincerely thank you for your support in 2019. I hope your 2020s are prosperous, rewarding, and fun. Portfolio update The portfolio contracted 4.0% in December, though more than...

Pinduoduo and the continued growth sell-off

Pinduoduo and the continued growth sell-off

Dear investors, Portfolio update The fund returned +7.6% in September. Strong performances from Carvana, Pinduoduo and Pointsbet outweighed continued falls in US software and more popular ‘growth’ stocks, with many of them 30-40% below recent highs. Liquidations like...

Pointsbet: a new investment

Pointsbet: a new investment

US sports betting is a rare greenfield opportunity For background, sports betting was made legal in the United States in May 2018, (more accurately, the Supreme Court declared this a decision for the states) and New Jersey legalised sports betting shortly after in...

Stress and Michael Jackson: Actinogen and Clinuvel

Stress and Michael Jackson: Actinogen and Clinuvel

There were some interesting biotech trial results this month. The first is Clinuvel, whose treatment 'Scenesse' was approved last night in the US. Scenesse treats EPP, which has been described as an allergy to the sun. The stock rallied about 60%, which was something...

Out of Sample Data and Quant Quake #2

Out of Sample Data and Quant Quake #2

September 2019 Investment Update Dear investors and well wishers, Portfolio Update The fund returned 10.9% in August, ahead of the MSCI world total return at 0.2% and the ASX200 total return at -2.4%, bringing us to +25% net for calendar year-to-date. Out-of-sample...

Value is Dead. Long Live Value.

Value is Dead. Long Live Value.

How to spot the invisible There are many ways to create value without showing after-tax profits. This is obvious to anyone with a biotech background (analysis of historic financials is no way to value a pharmaceutical company), but seems to confuse broad swathes of...

Portfolio update, a fee rebate, and fish oil

Portfolio update, a fee rebate, and fish oil

Hello everyone, The fund returned 0.9% in July. There were a couple of interesting developments since month end. Stanmore Coal received an unsolicited bid, conditional on finance, into which we sold our shares. Arbitrageurs will have to bet that a deteriorating coal...

A new form of computing…with live neurons

A new form of computing…with live neurons

Hello everyone, I had a fascinating chat with Hon Weng Chong, the founder of CC Labs, available on desktop here or iTunes here. Hon Weng first rose to prominence as a cofounder of Clinicloud, an innovative medical devices company that won FDA approval. The firm...